Can fashion redraw its manufacturing map?

China’s share remained relatively stable: 18.4 per cent by value and 32 per cent by volume, far outpacing rivals.

“Interestingly enough, sourcing diversification efforts have slowed — largely because of policy uncertainty,” says Lu. “Brands are talking about change, but the numbers don’t show dramatic movement,” since tariffs were announced.

The myth of “China plus five”

Luis Arandia, a partner at business law firm Barnes & Thornburg, notes that in the absence of clear regulatory guidance, brands are effectively left in limbo — unable to chart a definitive path forward. When the reciprocal tariffs were announced, fashion and apparel companies across the sector were left navigating a patchwork of country-specific rates — particularly complex across Southeast Asian markets.

Already, following Trump’s re-election last autumn, brands and sourcing executives began exploring “China plus four” or “China plus five” strategies. Many quietly began contingency planning: scouting factories in Cambodia, touring facilities in Vietnam, and evaluating capacity in India. But until Trump’s 2 April announcement from the Rose Garden, there was no clarity around which countries might offer safe harbour from tariffs. But the tariffs plan proved there was no such safe harbour. Instead, there was mounting uncertainty around the mechanisms of in-transit exemptions, as well as whether any grace provisions might be strategically leveraged. Notably, these tariffs apply to the non-US content of an article if at least 20 per cent of its value is derived from US-originating components — an intricate threshold with significant implications for globally sourced collections, he says.

As trade tensions simmer, industry experts are examining whether the advancement of reciprocal tariffs could fundamentally reshape fashion sourcing from key production hubs such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Vietnam, and Taiwan. Even in their nascent stages, the mere prospect of such tariffs may already be catalysing shifts in supply chain strategies.

For large-scale US fashion companies, China’s role in sourcing has already diminished, accounting for only a single-digit share of value or volume, says Lu. Today, these players rely on China largely for complex orders — those demanding a wide variety of styles in smaller batches — that are less feasible to fulfil elsewhere. In contrast, bulk manufacturing is increasingly anchored in countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia and, more recently, India, which have become essential to powering the US fashion supply chain.